National Victory Strategies Achieves 77.8% Polling Accuracy in Florida’s 2026 Primary

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE | NATIONAL VICTORY STRATEGIES

In text-to-web and live-caller surveys held in the months leading up to the 2026 primary elections, National Victory Strategies held 36 different polls in the state of Florida. 28 out of the 36 polls held were accurate in their prediction of the projected winner, resulting in a 77.8% accuracy in predictions held this election cycle overall.

Adaptability: In what is most likely the highest-profile election that was tracked by NVS, polling was able to adapt as the tide shifted in favor of Casey Askar in Florida Congressional District 22. The first wave of polling held for CD 22 had Michael Carbonara leading, the second wave had Belinda Keiser leading, and finally, just days before the election, wave 3 was able to adapt to changing circumstances and predict Casey Askar as the eventual winner.

Undecided Percentage: The scorecard reflects a high rate of undecided electorate. The average of 70% of respondents undecided across the 36 contests shows an electorate that is not too invested in smaller, low-profile elections—which is not uncommon. Despite the uncertainty, particularly in lower-profile local races where many voters had yet to become familiar with the candidates, polling correctly identified the eventual winner in 28 contests, or nearly 78%. These results demonstrate the polling’s ability to detect the direction of a race even before many voters had made their final decisions.

KEY FINDINGS

• 78.5% Prediction Accuracy

• Adaptability of Florida CD-22

• Undecided Percentage Accuracy

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted via text-to-web and live-caller surveys in the months leading up to Election Day on August 18, 2026.

Sample sizes varied between 300 and 400 for each individual poll.

ABOUT NATIONAL VICTORY STRATEGIES

National Victory Strategies (NVS) is a national polling and media firm with more than a decade of experience. The firm delivers strategic guidance, market insight, and media expertise powered by actionable data across a wide range of public policy, political, and corporate issues.

NVS has polled from local municipalities to national campaigns and operates in more than 30 states, including key battlegrounds such as Florida, Texas, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

While national in scope, NVS has deep expertise in one of the country’s most complex and influential audiences: the Hispanic/Latino electorate.

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