FL CD-22 GOP Poll: Casey Askar Leads Tight Primary; Carbonara, Burke within reach | NVS
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE | Published on: 08/16/2026
Final CD22 poll of Republican primary voters shows Askar slightly leading a crowded field, Top 3 candidates within margin of error
WASHINGTON, DC — A new survey of likely Republican primary voters in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, conducted by National Victory Strategies, finds Casey Askar leading a crowded primary field with 16% support, followed closely by Michael Carbonara at 13% and David Burke at 10%. With the Republican Primary Election taking place on August 18th, 2026, nearly half of the electorate (46%) remains undecided.
Primary Ballot Test
The survey of 432 registered voters, conducted August 11–15, shows a fluid race in the final days before primary voting concludes:
Casey Askar: 16%
Michael Carbonara: 13%
David Burke: 10%
Belinda Kaiser: 8%
Terri Hasdorff: 4%
Michael Thompson: 3%
Richard Evan: 0%
Undecided: 46%
Analysis of Initial Choice: Askar maintains a narrow 3-point edge over Carbonara overall, but key demographic coalitions differ significantly:
Race & Ethnicity: Askar commands strong support among Black/African American primary voters (40%), while Carbonara leads among Hispanic voters (21%), followed by David Burke and Michael Thompson (7% each). White voters remain closely split between Askar (17%), Carbonara (10%), and Burke (10%).
Age Groups: Burke and Carbonara tie among youngest voters (18–29) at 20% each. Carbonara and Belinda Kaiser lead among voters aged 30–39 (18% each). Askar's baseline strength builds with older age brackets, reaching 16% in 40–49, 15% in 50–64, and leading with 18% among voters aged 65+.
Voter Turnout & Status
Key Turnout Insights:
Already Voted (25%): One-quarter of the likely primary electorate has already cast their ballot prior to Election Day. High early-vote rates are reported among Hispanic voters (16%), Black voters (10%), and voters aged 50–64 (8%).
Definitely Voting (70%): A massive 70% majority indicates they will definitely vote on or before August 18th, led by voters aged 40–49 (84%) and 18–29 (80%).
Likely Voting (5%): Only 5% remain in the "likely" category, underscoring high overall intent to participate.
Sample Demographics & Methodology
Demographic Breakdown:
Party Registration: 100% Registered Republicans.
Age Distribution: 18–29 (1%), 30–39 (4%), 40–49 (10%), 50–64 (26%), 65+ (59%).
Gender: Female (49%), Male (51%).
Ethnicity: White/European (82%), Hispanic (10%), Other (6%), Black/African American (2%).
Methodology
This survey was conducted by telephone with live professional interviewers in English from August 11–15, 2026, with 432 registered likely Republican primary voters in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District. Samples were selected randomly throughout the district (15 landlines and 417 cellphones) to correlate with the demographic breakdown of likely 2026 Republican Primary voters in the district. The survey has a margin of error of ±4.7% at a 95% confidence interval.
ABOUT NATIONAL VICTORY STRATEGIES
National Victory Strategies (NVS) is a national polling and media firm with more than a decade of experience. The firm delivers strategic guidance, market insight, and media expertise powered by actionable data across a wide range of public policy, political, and corporate issues.
NVS has polled from local municipalities to national campaigns and operates in more than 30 states, including key battlegrounds such as Florida, Texas, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
While national in scope, NVS has deep expertise in one of the country’s most complex and influential audiences: the Hispanic/Latino electorate.
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CONTACT
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